Stat23 October 2017
Learning and Work Institute e-briefing
|Making learning and work count
Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute
Learning and Work Institute comment
The labour market figures published on
Duncan Melville, Chief Economist at Learning and Work Institute, commented:
‘Employment growth has slowed in the quarterly figures, while the more volatile monthly numbers actually show a fall. However, this has not fed through to unemployment, as the counterpart of employment slowing has been economic inactivity growing (in the monthly figures), rather than unemployment.
Unemployment is down again this month and the unemployment rate is now at its lowest level for 42 years. Despite this fall in unemployment, average earnings growth (excluding volatile bonuses) fell to 2.1%. As yesterday’s inflation release showed price rises significantly higher than this, real wages fell, for the seventh month in a row. There is nothing in this release to justify rises in interest rates.’
Paul Bivand, AD Statistics and Analysis at Learning and Work, added:
‘This release contains a revision to the claimant count figures back to the start of Universal Credit. The grouping of Universal Credit claimants counted as unemployed claimants has been reduced to those with conditionality approximating to JSA rules. This is due to the roll-out of Universal Credit Full Service increasingly including people who are sick or disabled and lone parents with young children. The net effect on the claimant count does not seem to have affected the upward trend, but users should be aware that the whole series has been revised.’
Unemployment fell by 52,000 between March to May 2017 and June to August 2017. and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 4.3% in the quarter the joint lowest level since 1975.
The proportion of people leaving the claimant count (or the ‘leavers rate’) has fallen. At 15.4%, it is now well below the level in early 2015 of 18.8%. The number of new claims has fallen. Jobseeker’s Allowance off-flow rates for JSA claimants of short durations increased. Off-flow rates remain at historically high levels.
Youth unemployment is showing a quarterly fall. There are still 524,000 unemployed young people, and 343,000 (4.8% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education.
The proportion of unemployed young people (not counting students) who are not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and therefore are not receiving official help with job search is now 52%.
|Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO)
The latest unemployment figure is
It has fallen by
from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise slightly, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate showed no change at 4.3%.
|Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance
The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to
|Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24)
Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has risen by
The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at
|Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+)
Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now
|Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age
The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is
|Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training
The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education
|Chart 7: Youth unemployment
The number of unemployed young people has fallen by
since last month’s figures, to
524,000.Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants fell last month by
unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance,
of all unemployed young people who are not students.In addition there are 180,000 in full-time education who are unemployed.
|Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count
The Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count fell by
taking the total to
the number of lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance was 63,915. 13.8% of JSA claimants and 7.9% of the JSA/UC claimant count. Lone parents with a youngest child aged five or over can only claim JSA (or UC Full Service), unless they have other reasons for claiming benefit.
|Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – new claims and leavers
The number of new Jobseeker’s Allowance claims fell by
|Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimant count leavers rate – leavers as percentage of ‘could leave’
Learning and Work Institute estimates that the ‘leavers rate’ – people who have left Jobseeker’s Allowance as a proportion of those who could leave it – has fallen to
|Chart 11: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted)
These measures show an improvement for claimants at all lengths of unemployment, except the shortest term.
The proportion staying beyond three months has fallen to
|Chart 12: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed
The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now
This is likely to rise over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has risen by 1.5 percentage points over the last three months.
These figures are based on those in Chart 11, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds.
| Chart 13: Vacancies – whole economy survey
Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) rose this month, to
| Chart 14: Unemployed people per vacancy
|Chart 15: UK employment
Employment fell by
|Chart 16: Employment rate in the UK
The employment rate rose by
percentage points over the quarter, to
75.1%, but fell on last month’s figure, by 0.1 percentage point.
|Chart 17: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits
This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness.
|Chart 18: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents
The survey figures (showing those looking after family) fell sharply while benefit measures fell slowly.
This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families).
|Chart 19: Employment rate quarterly change in regions –
June to August 2017
|Chart 20: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions –
June to August 2017
|Chart 21: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions –
June to August 2017
Overall, there was a quarterly
percentage point fall in the inactivity rate.
regions showed rises in inactivity, led by
the South West and Northern Ireland.
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