Duncan Melville Chief Economist
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Duncan Melville

Chief Economist

Duncan is an economist with nearly 30 years’ experience in the private and public sectors in the UK and New Zealand. He joined CESI as Chief Economist in July 2014 and continued in the same role when it merged to become Learning and Work Institute. Immediately prior to joining CESI, Duncan worked for a year at English Heritage. From 2009 to 2013, Duncan was an economic consultant in the private sector. Duncan was Deputy Chief Economist of GLA Economics, at the Greater London Authority from 2003 to 2009, and head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Unit and a labour market adviser in HM Treasury from 1999 to 2003. Between 1996 and 1999, Duncan worked in New Zealand for the Department of Labour, and between 1986 and 1996, he worked for various UKcentral government departments.

As well as labour economics, Duncan has expertise in macroeconomic analysis and policy, economic appraisal and evaluation, economic impact studies, and the economics of cities. Duncan is familiar with the detailed guidance on cost benefit analysis set out in HM Treasury's Green Book. He has used cost benefit analysis to both appraise and evaluate a wide range of projects and programmes.Duncan leads on Learning and Work Institute's economic analysis. He has undertaken major analytical projects, including on tackling worklessness and poverty in both London and the UK overall, low pay and the living wage in London, the London labour market, evaluations of labour market programmes, occupational licensing, the economy of central London, the relationship between the UK and London economies, fiscal policy reform, taxation and public expenditure in London, economic and labour market forecasts for a number of local and regional economies, including London, SME access to finance, and a number of economic impact assessments.Duncan holds a BA in economics from Cambridge University and an MSc in economics from the London School of Economics.

2 August 2016 by Duncan Melville

The potential labour market impact of Brexit

The overwhelming consensus amongst economists, normally a fractious bunch, is that Brexit is expected to reduce GDP growth with adverse labour market consequences: lower wages and, or higher unemployment, in both the short and longer terms.